Ðelevision manufacturing Essays

Еelevision manufacturing Essays Еelevision manufacturing Essay Еelevision manufacturing Essay In general, as a technology moves from the early stages of laboratory development to widespread acceptance in the marketplace, the forecasting methodologies that are most appropriate move from qualitative to quantitative techniques. Since technological forecasting is employed to predict long-term technological developments, the methods used are generally qualitative (Donnelly, n. d. ). Trend Extrapolation A forecast can be generated by observing a change through time in the character of something and projecting or extrapolating that change into the future (Cornish, 1977, p.108). In making such a forecast, the focus is on the long-term trend, so short-term fluctuations are disregarded. Trend extrapolations require that the forecaster have an understanding of the factors which contributed to change in the past, and possess confidence in the notion that these factors will continue to influence developments in a similar fashion in the future (Schwarz, Svedin, Wittrock, 1982, p. 20). One commonly employed approach to trend extrapolation involves the use of growth curves (Cornish, 1977, pp. 110-111). Growth curves are loosely based upon the notion that the growth of a technology can be charted in the same way organic growth can be charted. For example, the growth in height and weight of an individual can be charted, and will commonly display a pattern which indicates a leveling off around early adulthood (Donnelly, n. d. ). As an illustration, Martino (1983) describes how this particular technique can be used in charting and forecasting the growth in, and leveling off, of the number of cable television subscribers (Donnelly, n. d. ). Regarding the accuracy of trend extrapolation as a forecasting technique, Ascher (1978) questions its objectivity and reliability (p. 183). Schnaars (1989) goes even further and admonishes forecasters to discount trend extrapolations. Schnaars notes that trends and patterns have no life of their own and are susceptible to sudden changes, and that focusing on trends alone is often a search for the will-o-the wisp (p. 152). As an example of a misuse of trend extrapolation, Schnaars notes the actions taken by American electronics firms with regard to television manufacturing. Through the 1950s and the 1960s, television sets steadily grew larger. As American firms continued to make large, cabinet-based systems, Japanese firms began to concentrate on making portable sets (Donnelly, n. d. ). Delphi Forecasting Model Delphi Analysis is used in the decision-making process, in particular in forecasting. Several experts sit together and try to compromise on something upon which they cannot agree. In fact, the Delphi procedure is designed for the systematic solicitation of expert opinion. Many things can influence Opinions in-group settings, including the dominant positions of some participants, personal magnetism, alleged expertise, and fringe opinions. The Delphi technique is a method of obtaining what could be considered an intuitive consensus of group expert opinions. The accuracy of the forecast produced is limited by the quality of opinions provided by the experts, and it should be noted that some authors (such as, Challis and Wills, 1970 and Wise, 1976) have questioned the accuracy of the opinions of specialists (Donnelly, n. d. ).